بررسی تحلیل اقتصادسنجی تأثیر تورم بر بیکاری در افغانستان

Abstract

An Econometric Study of the Impact of Inflation on Unemployment in Afghanistan

Sayed Masood Habibi, Yosef Sayam, Sayed Moladad Sirat, Farid Ahmad Ahmadi, Hamidullah Yaqin

Abstract

Inflation and unemployment are among the most important macroeconomic indicators, and changes in these variables can significantly affect social welfare, economic stability, and development. The relationship between inflation and unemployment has long been an important issue in economics. The Phillips Curve theory suggests an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run. However, in developing economies such as Afghanistan, this relationship may differ from conventional patterns due to structural characteristics, including the role of imports in meeting market demand, changes in foreign exchange rates, and limited domestic production capacity. This study examines the effect of inflation on the unemployment rate in Afghanistan during 1990–2020. The study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. The required data were obtained from the World Bank. To examine the relationship between the variables, a multiple linear regression model based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was estimated using EViews. The results show that inflation has a positive and statistically significant effect on the unemployment rate in Afghanistan. This indicates that an increase in inflation is associated with an increase in unemployment, contrary to the traditional Phillips Curve prediction. Overall, the findings suggest that the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Afghanistan may be influenced by structural factors, supply constraints, and external shocks.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Inflation, Least Squares Model, Unemployment.