نقش شکنندگی دولت در توسعه انسانی کشورهای توسعه‌یافته با روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته طی دورۀ زمانی ۲۰۰۶ تا ۲۰۲۳

الملخص

Abstract

This study analyzes the complex linkages between state fragility and human development across 36 developed countries and proposes a novel approach to institutional analysis. Contrary to the conventional view that associates fragility primarily with developing societies, this research examines how different dimensions of fragility shape the dynamics of human development in structurally distinct advanced economies. The study employs panel data for 36 countries over the period 2006–2023 and applies the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique in Stata. After estimating a baseline human development model and incorporating the overall state fragility index and its four sub-dimensions—economic, political, social, and cohesion—five regression models are estimated. The results indicate a high degree of persistence in human development, underscoring the role of past institutional infrastructures in sustaining current stability. The overall fragility index and all its dimensions exert a negative and statistically significant effect on human development, with the cohesion dimension exhibiting the most detrimental and constraining impact. From an institutional perspective, civil liberties and economic freedom act as positive drivers of human development. By contrast, variables such as government size, the legal system and security of property rights, and sound money show an inverse relationship with human development, which can be attributed to institutional rigidity. Moreover, the negative coefficients for trade freedom and globalization suggest that, under conditions of fragility, economic openness may contribute to wage polarization and downward pressure on welfare standards, thereby undermining human development. Overall, the findings provide a novel framework for understanding the nexus between governance and welfare. In developed countries, fragility does not typically manifest as sudden collapse but rather unfolds through a gradual process of erosion. Within this context, the crisis of social cohesion—driven by generational divides and integration challenges—emerges as the most critical threat to long-term stability, while civil liberties and market competitiveness function as stabilizing forces that mitigate the adverse effects of fragility.