تحلیل اثر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر تجارت خارجی افغانستان طی دوره‌ 1990 تا 2023

Abstract

Foreign trade constitutes one of the fundamental pillars of the economy in developing countries and is influenced by various macroeconomic factors. Among these, exchange rate fluctuations are considered a key determinant that can significantly affect the volume and dynamics of trade. Given the growing importance of foreign trade in fostering economic growth and achieving sustainable development, this study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Afghanistan’s foreign trade over the period 1990–2023. Employing a quantitative approach, the research is based on annual time-series data collected from reliable international sources. To investigate the relationship among variables, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied. Furthermore, the Phillips–Perron unit root test and the bounds testing approach to cointegration were employed to examine the stationarity of the series and the existence of a long-run relationship. In addition, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was utilized to estimate both short-run and long-run dynamics and to assess the speed of adjustment following economic shocks. The empirical findings indicate that the long-run coefficient of exchange rate fluctuations on Afghanistan’s foreign trade is estimated at –0.541, hile the short-run coefficient is –0.92. Overall, the results reveal that exchange rate fluctuations exert a negative influence on Afghanistan’s foreign trade in both the short and long run, thereby acting as a barrier to trade stability and sustainable economic development.