بررسی تأثیر تجارت بینالملل بر رشد اقتصادی افغانستان با رویکرد اقتصادسنجی
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.67753/frsj.v3i2.202Keywords:
اشتغال بخش زراعت، تجارت بینالملل، حداقل مربعات معمولی، رشد اقتصادی، نرخ ارزAbstract
Investigating the Impact of International Trade on Afghanistan's Economic Growth: An Econometric Approach
Teaching Assistant Parwiz Behzad Rahimi1*, Senior Teaching Assistant Ahmad Zia Nouri2, Jawid Mohammadi3, Teaching Assistant Zalmai Fazli4 and Teaching Assistant Jawid Nouri5
Abstract
Economic growth, as one of the most critical indicators of development, is substantially influenced by international trade performance. Consequently, examining the role of foreign trade in Afghanistan's economy is of vital importance. This study aims to empirically evaluate the impact of international trade on economic growth in Afghanistan from 1970 to 2021, providing empirical evidence to support macroeconomic policymaking. To achieve this objective, a time-series econometric framework was utilized, and the model was estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) using EViews statistical software. The empirical findings reveal that exports exert a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth, demonstrating the effective role of foreign market expansion, increased foreign exchange earnings, technology transfer, and productivity enhancement in driving national output. Additionally, agricultural employment as a fundamental pillar of Afghanistan's economy exhibits a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, emphasizing the importance of agricultural development in boosting output, job creation, and domestic income generation. Conversely, imports demonstrate a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth, primarily driven by the predominance of final consumer goods over capital and intermediate imports, high structural import dependency, and limited domestic manufacturing capacity. The findings underscore that achieving sustainable economic growth in Afghanistan requires effective policies targeting export promotion, structural import reform favoring capital and productive goods, strengthening domestic production capacity, expanding productive employment in agriculture, and enhancing national technological capabilities and competitiveness.
Keywords: Agricultural Employment, Economic Growth, International Trade, Ordinary Least Squares, Exchange Rate
References
منابع
Asian Development Bank. (2024). Asian Development Outlook 2024. Asian Development Bank.
Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5, 181–189.
Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135.
Carbaugh, R. J. (2022). International Economics (18th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Delawari, A. F. (2018). A time series analysis of determinants of FDI in Afghanistan: Which one matters the most, security or economic growth? Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research, 6(2).
Easterly, W. (2006). The white man’s burden: Why the West’s efforts to aid the rest have done so much ill and so little good. New York: Penguin Press.
Feenstra, R. C., & Taylor, A. M. (2017). International Economics (4th ed.). Worth Publishers.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy (8th ed.). Boston: Pearson.
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2023). International Economics: Theory and Policy (12th ed.). Pearson.
Majidi, A. (2023). Studying the Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth of Afghanistan during 2003–2021. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 5(1), 148–158.
Mankiw, N. Gregory. (2021). Principles of economics (9th ed.). Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2023). International Economics: Theory and Policy (12th ed.). Pearson.
Nasir, M., & Khan, R. A. (2019). Economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade accessibility: Empirical evidence from SAARC economies (1996–2017). Journal of Business Strategies, 13(2), 93–112.
Sediqi, F. A. (2025). Government expenditure and economic growth in Afghanistan (2001–2020). Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 2(1), 32–46.
Sowrov, S. M. T. H. (2024). Trade openness, tariffs and economic growth: An empirical study from countries of the G-20.
Samuelson, Paul A.., & Nordhaus, William D. (2010). Economics (19th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Thaker, M. A. M. T., Baryal, B., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2024). The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Afghanistan: An empirical insight. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 20(10), 4217–4234.
The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Afghanistan: An empirical insight. (2024). International Journal of Emerging Markets, 20(10), 4217–4234.
United Nations Development Programme. (2025). Afghanistan economic recovery and aid report. UNDP.
Villanthenkodath, M. A., & Mushtaq, U. (2019). Modelling the nexus between foreign aid and economic growth: A case of Afghanistan and Egypt. Studies of Applied Economics, 39(2).
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (5th ed.). Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning.
World Bank. (2020). World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains. Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators 2024. World Bank.
World Bank. (2024). Afghanistan Development Update 2024. World Bank Group.
World Trade Organization. (2023). World Trade Report 2023: Re-globalization for a Secure, Inclusive and Sustainable Future. Geneva: WTO.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Farah Research and Scientific Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
